In a world where the federal government is grappling with capital gains tax and trusts, one Australian economist, Andrew Leigh, is focusing on a far more existential threat: the potential for global extinction. Leigh, an assistant Treasury minister, is not just concerned about the usual suspects like nuclear war or climate change. Instead, he's highlighting the risks posed by artificial intelligence and synthetic biology, which he believes could be the real deal-breakers for humanity's future.
Leigh's speech, delivered in honor of the late Lyndhurst Giblin, an esteemed Australian economist, paints a rather bleak picture. He argues that while economics is often seen as a gloomy science, it struggles with the ultimate scarcity - the possibility that there may be no future for humanity to make choices. In his words, 'Our species is only a few hundred thousand years old, while the sun has billions of years left to burn. Roughly 100 billion humans have lived so far.' This perspective is both humbling and terrifying.
What makes Leigh's speech particularly fascinating is his emphasis on the role of technology in our potential demise. He notes that while nuclear war and climate change are definite threats, the bigger risk may come from the very advancements that are supposed to save us. As countries embrace medical breakthroughs and the productivity gains offered by AI, Leigh warns that we may be sowing the seeds of our own destruction.
In my opinion, Leigh's speech is a wake-up call for economists and policymakers alike. It's not just about analyzing equity and efficiency; it's about survivability. Economists need to start thinking about the 'hazard rate' of new technologies and implementing preventive measures, even for remote dangers. This is a call to action, urging us to consider the long-term implications of our decisions.
What many people don't realize is that the future of humanity is not just about economic growth or technological advancement. It's about ensuring our survival. Leigh's speech is a reminder that we need to be just as concerned about the risks posed by AI and synthetic biology as we are about the more immediate threats like climate change. It's a call to action that demands our attention and consideration.
From my perspective, Leigh's speech is a powerful reminder of the fragility of our existence. It's a call to action for economists and policymakers to start thinking about survivability and to take steps to ensure the long-term survival of humanity. It's a thought-provoking piece that leaves you with a sense of awe and a newfound appreciation for the future of our species.
